Despite wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, a resurgent Donald Trump threatening global trade, and the world increasing supply, crude prices haven’t swung wildly like they once did. In fact, 2024 marked one of the most stable years for oil prices in decades, and the first half of 2025 has more or less followed suit.

So what’s behind this unusual calm in a chaotic world?

On this episode of West of Centre Short, energy analyst Susan Bell of Rystad Energy breaks down what’s anchoring post-pandemic global oil prices — and why Canada has proven more resilient than expected. From OPEC’s evolving playbook to U.S. shale discipline and the impact of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, we unpack the new rules of the game. That includes the political calculus behind Saudi Arabia’s more cautious approach, as it balances domestic reforms, regional influence and long-term energy strategy.

But the era of stability may not last. Bell flags the early warning signs — and what could trigger the next big shift.

Host: Rob Brown | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guest: Susan Bell

Aspiration is meeting reality for Prime Minister Mark Carney, as the pressures of governing expose the risks of his sky-high campaign promises.

The most immediate example is his abrupt reversal on Canada’s digital services tax, scrapped just before it was set to take effect after Donald Trump threatened to walk away from trade talks. Critics say Carney waved a red flag at a bull; supporters frame it as a strategic concession to get negotiations back on track. But if no deal materializes by the self-imposed July 21 deadline, the political cost could be steep — especially for a leader who built his brand on going “elbows up” with the U.S.

This week on West of Centre, trade expert Carlo Dade argued Canada could “rag the puck” and let U.S. court challenges to Trump’s tariff powers play out. But The Logic’s Laura Osman noted Carney is under immense pressure to secure a near-term deal. That urgency matches his government’s fast-paced push for quick wins — including tax cuts, moves to reduce interprovincial trade barriers, and the passage of Bill C-5 to fast-track infrastructure approvals.

But passing legislation is the easy part. Another round of reality checks is looming — including whether provinces will actually trade more freely, and whether a long-sought pipeline to the West Coast might finally materialize. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith continues to apply pressure through a list of demands and her new Alberta Next panel. Political columnist Graham Thomson says she’s also fending off threats from separatists on the right and watching for signs of a centrist revival under the old Progressive Conservative brand.

Host: Rob Brown | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guests: Carlo Dade, Laura Osman, Graham Thomson

Canada has yet to meet NATO’s two per cent defence benchmark, yet the federal government is already pledging to boost spending to five per cent of GDP by 2035. That target framed CBC host Rob Brown’s conversation with Arctic security scholar Rob Huebert, who says the figure is not arbitrary but reflects growing vulnerabilities exposed by Russian aggression, China’s rise and the uncertainty of a second Donald Trump presidency.

On this episode of West of Centre Short, Huebert notes Canada’s last major northern military hardware upgrade came in the 1980s. True modernization, he says, means over-the-horizon radar, new satellites, F-35 fighter jets and even submarines — assets he argues must be based in the North.

For Huebert, Arctic defence is less about troops and more about sensors and rapid response capability. He is pushing for a revamped North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD), deep-water ports and says even a potential West Coast oil pipeline could be counted under NATO’s infrastructure allowance. Fund the full package, he contends, and Canada would sail past five per cent “without even breaking a sweat.”

But politics casts a shadow over every dollar. Huebert says Canadians have rallied before, but only when leaders are candid about the stakes. Without that clarity, he warns, Canada risks under-spending, under-preparing — and waking up as a vassal state to the United States.

Host: Rob Brown | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guest: Rob Huebert

Premier Danielle Smith is pitching her “Alberta Next” roadshow as a grassroots consultation, but critics say its six survey questions steer Albertans toward sovereignty-tinged answers. The travelling panel will study these topics: an Alberta police force, immigration, constitutional amendments, provincial tax collection, federal transfers and equalization, and a provincial pension plan.

On this week’s West of Centre, host Kathleen Petty asks former UCP staffer Karamveer Lalh, pollster Janet Brown and former NDP government top aide Keith McLaughlin whether the tour aims to placate United Conservatives rather than seek good-faith solutions.

The guests say the effort echoes Jason Kenney’s 2019 Fair Deal Panel and warn the framing could alienate moderates and newcomers. They note the Republican Party of Alberta’s 18-per-cent showing in the Olds–Didsbury–Three Hills byelection proves Smith can’t ignore separatist voters. At the same time, NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi now has a seat in the legislature — a development that complicates Smith’s push for any referendum as she works to keep her caucus united.

Host: Kathleen Petty | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guests: Karamveer Lalh, Keith McLaughlin, Janet Brown

The results of Alberta’s three byelections delivered a largely status quo outcome, but with some notable undercurrents. In Edmonton-Strathcona, NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi secured a decisive win, surpassing former leader Rachel Notley’s vote share with 82 per cent. It marks his long-awaited entry into the legislature. The NDP also held Edmonton-Ellerslie, though with a slimmer margin — nearly 11 points down from 2023. That erosion raises questions about the party’s grip on “Fortress Edmonton,” particularly as polls suggest the UCP is gaining ground in the capital.

In Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, the UCP kept the rural stronghold but lost 15 points in vote share. The Republican Party of Alberta’s Cam Davies earned nearly 18 per cent — the strongest separatist showing in years. Still, Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt called the result underwhelming, noting it fell short of the one-third benchmark that would signal serious momentum. He called it a missed opportunity for Alberta’s separatist movement, which tends to rise and recede depending on leadership and political climate.

In this episode of West of Centre Short, Bratt argues the latest separatist push is less grassroots than previous waves and more top-down — driven in part by Premier Danielle Smith and her inner circle. While Smith says she supports a united Canada, critics point to her past reliance on the Sovereignty Act, efforts to create a provincial pension plan and police force, and paving the way for a potential independence referendum in 2026 as signs of a deeper, ambiguous agenda.

Host: Rob Brown | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guest: Duane Bratt

Ahead of three Alberta provincial byelections on June 23, West of Centre is sharing a special bonus episode from our colleagues at Front Burner.

They recently travelled to Three Hills — a town about 130 km northeast of Calgary — to explore why separatist sentiment continues to simmer in parts of rural Alberta. CBC Calgary’s Jason Markusoff joined them on the ground, attending a town hall on Alberta independence and speaking with locals about what’s fuelling the frustration with Ottawa.

In the riding of Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, separatism isn’t just a talking point — it’s basically on the ballot. The Alberta Republic Party, which supports independence, is fielding a candidate with a fraught history with the UCP. This episode offers a revealing look at the political mood heading into Monday’s vote.

The federal election may be over, but Pierre Poilievre is not done campaigning. After losing his longtime seat in the Ottawa region, the Conservative leader is now focused on winning a byelection in rural Alberta—one of the party’s safest ridings. On this episode of West of Centre, three Conservative insiders discuss what this campaign could reveal about Poilievre’s political evolution. Can he adapt his tone and strategy to regain momentum and further expand support? Or will he double down on the populist messaging that’s defined his leadership so far?

Ben Woodfinden, Poilievre’s director of communications during the election, joins veteran political scientist Ian Brodie and disillusioned strategist Sarah Biggs to weigh the stakes—not just for Poilievre, but for the Conservative Party itself. How should he pitch his message in a riding that’s more sympathetic to separatist sentiment, while still maintaining credibility as a prime minister-in-waiting? And with a leadership review set for January, how much reflection and recalibration can he afford before time runs out?

As Prime Minister Mark Carney carves out centrist ground—borrowing from the Conservative playbook while pushing his own agenda—Poilievre may need to pivot from ideological combat to a message of competence and readiness. This episode explores what that shift could mean for the Conservative movement—and for a political system now settling into a prolonged two-party race.

Alberta is facing the prospect of its largest coordinated public-sector labour disruption in decades, with tens of thousands of workers poised to strike. Teachers, health-care professionals and government employees have voiced growing frustration with stalled negotiations — including 95 per cent of Alberta Teachers’ Association members voting in favour of strike action. On this episode of West of Centre Short, host Rob Brown speaks with Jason Foster, a professor of human resources and labour relations at Athabasca University, about what’s driving the unrest.

Foster, who had previously worked as director of policy analysis at the Alberta Federation of Labour, says many public-sector workers have endured nearly a decade of stagnant pay, followed by surging inflation and the emotional toll of the COVID-19 pandemic. Alberta’s teachers were once the highest paid in Canada, but have since fallen behind their counterparts in other provinces. Class sizes are also a growing concern as the province’s population continues to rise.

What’s different this time, Foster says, is that union members — not leadership — are driving the push for better deals. Workers are rejecting mediated agreements they see as inadequate and demanding more from the bargaining table.