Despite wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, a resurgent Donald Trump threatening global trade, and the world increasing supply, crude prices haven’t swung wildly like they once did. In fact, 2024 marked one of the most stable years for oil prices in decades, and the first half of 2025 has more or less followed suit.

So what’s behind this unusual calm in a chaotic world?

On this episode of West of Centre Short, energy analyst Susan Bell of Rystad Energy breaks down what’s anchoring post-pandemic global oil prices — and why Canada has proven more resilient than expected. From OPEC’s evolving playbook to U.S. shale discipline and the impact of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, we unpack the new rules of the game. That includes the political calculus behind Saudi Arabia’s more cautious approach, as it balances domestic reforms, regional influence and long-term energy strategy.

But the era of stability may not last. Bell flags the early warning signs — and what could trigger the next big shift.

Host: Rob Brown | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guest: Susan Bell

Aspiration is meeting reality for Prime Minister Mark Carney, as the pressures of governing expose the risks of his sky-high campaign promises.

The most immediate example is his abrupt reversal on Canada’s digital services tax, scrapped just before it was set to take effect after Donald Trump threatened to walk away from trade talks. Critics say Carney waved a red flag at a bull; supporters frame it as a strategic concession to get negotiations back on track. But if no deal materializes by the self-imposed July 21 deadline, the political cost could be steep — especially for a leader who built his brand on going “elbows up” with the U.S.

This week on West of Centre, trade expert Carlo Dade argued Canada could “rag the puck” and let U.S. court challenges to Trump’s tariff powers play out. But The Logic’s Laura Osman noted Carney is under immense pressure to secure a near-term deal. That urgency matches his government’s fast-paced push for quick wins — including tax cuts, moves to reduce interprovincial trade barriers, and the passage of Bill C-5 to fast-track infrastructure approvals.

But passing legislation is the easy part. Another round of reality checks is looming — including whether provinces will actually trade more freely, and whether a long-sought pipeline to the West Coast might finally materialize. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith continues to apply pressure through a list of demands and her new Alberta Next panel. Political columnist Graham Thomson says she’s also fending off threats from separatists on the right and watching for signs of a centrist revival under the old Progressive Conservative brand.

Host: Rob Brown | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guests: Carlo Dade, Laura Osman, Graham Thomson

Canada has yet to meet NATO’s two per cent defence benchmark, yet the federal government is already pledging to boost spending to five per cent of GDP by 2035. That target framed CBC host Rob Brown’s conversation with Arctic security scholar Rob Huebert, who says the figure is not arbitrary but reflects growing vulnerabilities exposed by Russian aggression, China’s rise and the uncertainty of a second Donald Trump presidency.

On this episode of West of Centre Short, Huebert notes Canada’s last major northern military hardware upgrade came in the 1980s. True modernization, he says, means over-the-horizon radar, new satellites, F-35 fighter jets and even submarines — assets he argues must be based in the North.

For Huebert, Arctic defence is less about troops and more about sensors and rapid response capability. He is pushing for a revamped North American Aerospace Defence Command (NORAD), deep-water ports and says even a potential West Coast oil pipeline could be counted under NATO’s infrastructure allowance. Fund the full package, he contends, and Canada would sail past five per cent “without even breaking a sweat.”

But politics casts a shadow over every dollar. Huebert says Canadians have rallied before, but only when leaders are candid about the stakes. Without that clarity, he warns, Canada risks under-spending, under-preparing — and waking up as a vassal state to the United States.

Host: Rob Brown | Producer & editor: Falice Chin | Guest: Rob Huebert