Episodes

  • Is the U.S. labor market about to fall off a cliff?

    Is the U.S. labor market about to fall off a cliff?
    May 2 2025
    This episode examines whether the U.S. labor market is on the brink of a sharp decline. It reviews key data from April—such as slowing private sector employment growth and moderate increases in hourly earnings—and argues that despite decelerating job gains, the labor market remains resilient. The discussion differentiates between a technical recession and a severe downturn, outlines a deflationary risk-off portfolio strategy (favoring defensive assets, low beta, large caps, and treasurys over riskier instruments), and evaluates multiple quantitative signals including market regime and liquidity trends. The podcast closes by addressing client concerns about market indecision and the potential for regime shifts, advising investors to remain vigilant for confirming signals in this uncertain environment.
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    19 mins
  • Whose stock market and economy is it—Biden’s or Trump’s?

    Whose stock market and economy is it—Biden’s or Trump’s?
    May 1 2025
    This podcast dives into the macro debate over whose economic agenda is shaping the market—Biden’s or Trump’s—against a backdrop of shifting trade policies and mixed economic data. It covers the imminent trade deals announced by U.S. Trade Representative Greer, discusses the impact of ongoing policy ambiguity, and highlights how underlying robust metrics such as real final sales and disposable income bolster confidence despite a headline GDP contraction. The discussion also outlines strategic portfolio guidance based on systematic signals from models like KISS and Dr. Mo, a detailed look at quantitative signals across different time horizons, and the implications of a prevailing deflation regime that favors defensive positioning. Key risks and opportunities are addressed, emphasizing the importance of adhering to systematic signals over reactive positioning.
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    16 mins
  • Will President Trump's policy pivot sustain the bull run?

    Will President Trump's policy pivot sustain the bull run?
    Apr 30 2025
    Explore how Trump's tariff-heavy approach mixed with tactical policy retreats is shaping market dynamics. This discussion reviews quantitative signals, strategic portfolio positioning in a deflation regime, and the risks and opportunities tied to global trade and liquidity—all while examining whether changes in policy could trigger a medium-term bounce or heightened volatility.
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    10 mins
  • Is the bull case fully priced in or is there further upside for risk assets?

    Is the bull case fully priced in or is there further upside for risk assets?
    Apr 29 2025
    This podcast episode explores whether risk assets have additional upside beyond what is currently priced in. It discusses how the bond market blowup weakened President Trump’s ability to pursue a hawkish agenda and precipitated a fiscal pivot toward pro-growth policies—though the stimulus is largely anticipated and carries execution risks. The hosts outline a cautious portfolio strategy that avoids stocks, favors significant gold exposure, and makes modest Bitcoin adjustments based on improved momentum signals. They also review quantitative indicators, market regime challenges (characterized by deflationary trends and lagging policy responses), and address client concerns about maintaining stock exposure in the face of fiscal largesse.
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    13 mins
  • What does a “W-shaped market in a U-shaped economy” mean?

    What does a “W-shaped market in a U-shaped economy” mean?
    Apr 28 2025
    This podcast delves into a macroeconomic analysis where the market anticipates successful trade negotiations and fiscal stimulus while grappling with persistent economic mismatches. The discussion covers a forecast of repeated rallies and declines (a W-shaped market) paired with a gradual U-shaped economic recovery. Key points include a detailed portfolio strategy with a heavy emphasis on cash and gold, augmented Bitcoin exposure, quantitative signals across various time horizons, and an assessment of the current deflationary market regime. The podcast also outlines potential risks such as delayed policy support and recession probability spikes, alongside opportunities like Bitcoin decoupling and defensive positioning, and concludes with a client query on the impacts of changes in dogecoin savings forecasts on the bond market.
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    10 mins
  • Can risk assets achieve escape velocity without QE?

    Can risk assets achieve escape velocity without QE?
    Apr 24 2025
    This podcast explores the macro outlook and portfolio strategy underpinning the view that risk assets can gain momentum without quantitative easing. Topics include the anticipated retest of stock market lows amid a growth slowdown, the KISS Portfolio Construction Process (favoring stocks, gold, and Bitcoin over bonds), and detailed quantitative signals ranging from short‑term Ethereum overbought conditions to a longer‑term inflation and deflation regime. The discussion also covers risks such as policy sequencing errors and geopolitical stresses, along with opportunities like liquidity hedging and crypto’s potential upside, and concludes with guidance on rebalancing allocations in alignment with evolving market signals.
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    12 mins
  • Did the Trump Administration Abandon Main Street?

    Did the Trump Administration Abandon Main Street?
    Apr 23 2025
    In this episode, the discussion centers on how Trump’s recent policy backtracking—evidenced by reversals on China strategy and actions regarding Fed Chair Powell—signals a clear move away from Main Street priorities. The podcast explains that leaked Treasury Secretary insights and shifts in market behaviors (including Musk’s retreat from DOGE) mark a political pivot from fiscal austerity to continued largesse. It covers a paradigm shift toward high deficit spending, targeted tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation amid AI-driven job displacement, and overall market signals that favor stocks, gold, and Bitcoin over bonds. The analysis is supported by various quantitative models forecasting shifts from a deflationary regime to an inflationary one, and it also addresses questions on adjusting Bitcoin’s top-down market overlay similar to that previously removed for gold.
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    12 mins
  • Macro Analysis: Is It Time to Buy the Dip?

    Macro Analysis: Is It Time to Buy the Dip?
    Apr 22 2025
    This podcast from 42 Macro delves into whether current market conditions justify 'buying the dip.' It discusses the modest rebound in U.S. equities post-Monday’s selloff against the backdrop of policy missteps by the Trump administration, which may signal a shift away from U.S. assets. The conversation covers portfolio strategies favoring defensive assets with a focus on dollar cost averaging, quantitative signals from models like GRID and the Macro Weather Model, and the prevailing deflationary regime in the market. Additional discussion includes risks from unpredictable fiscal and trade policies, shifting equity inflows to Europe, and tactical advice when scaling into gold and Treasurys, including addressing a client’s question on transitioning out of long-duration U.S. Treasurys.
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    9 mins
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