In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, provide a midyear market review and outlook for 2025. Reflecting on major surprises in the first half of the year, including unexpected tariff announcements and subsequent reversals, they analyze market performance in the first half of the year against historical trends. The discussion highlights market resilience, key economic indicators, historical market trends, and strategic insights into navigating the second half of 2025 effectively.

Key Takeaways

• Unexpected Tariff Volatility
  
  • The Liberation Day announcement by President Trump of extremely high tariffs surprised markets significantly. Equally surprising was how rapidly these tariffs were paused, causing abrupt swings in market sentiment.
• Investor Sentiment Shifts
  
  • Many investors who were initially bearish following the tariff announcements underestimated the market's capacity to rebound strongly, emphasizing the importance of managing emotional biases and market timing.
• Market Resilience and Momentum
  
  • Despite early setbacks, the markets showed resilience, demonstrating strong recovery patterns consistent with historical trends.
• Bull Still Charging
  
  • The average bull market lasts about five years, but the current one we’re in hasn’t lasted even three yet—something to keep in mind next time the market experiences a setback.
• Fed Stays on Pause
  
  • Market volatility kept the Fed on the sidelines in the first half of 2025, but we may see rate cuts by the fall if the markets stay on track.
• A Big Beautiful Boost
  
  • Though the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill will likely add to the deficit in the coming years, it could also provide a boon to the markets in the back half of the year.
• Strategic Insights for Second Half 2025
  
  • Historical market trends indicate a potentially strong performance for the latter half of 2025. Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies and diversification, and remain cautious of headline-driven market reactions.

Want access to Carson Investment Research Team’s full Midyear Market Outlook? Head to https://www.carsongroup.com/market-outlook to download the full report.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #MidyearOutlook2025 #MarketVolatility #Tariffs #InvestorSentiment #EconomicTrends #MarketForecast #HistoricalPatterns #InvestmentStrategy #StockMarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #MarketRecovery

In this week’s episode of the Facts Vs Feelings podcast, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Barry Gilbert, VP Asset Allocation Strategist at Carson Group, for an insightful conversation on effective portfolio management strategies. Barry shares valuable perspectives on the importance of teamwork, constructive debate, and making decisive investment decisions based on clear, actionable insights. Ryan and Sonu also discuss the historical strength of the July market, providing investors with context and strategic guidance for navigating the second half of the year.

Key Takeaways

• July Stock Market Trends and Analysis
  
  • July has historically been strong, with the S&P 500 rising 10 consecutive years in that month, and it’s notably the strongest month during post-election years.
• Impact of Positive May and June Performance
  
  • Historically, positive returns in both May and June forecast strong market performance for the rest of the year—typically gaining around 9-10% in the final six months.
• Effective Portfolio Management Insights
  
  • Barry Gilbert stresses the importance of constructive debate, critical thinking, and conviction-driven investment decisions in successful asset allocation strategies.
• Carson Group’s Investment Philosophy
  
  • Barry highlights Carson’s culture of managing real money through rigorous debate and collaborative decision-making.
• Investor Guidance and Market Volatility
  
  • Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective and managing emotional reactions during short-term market fluctuations.

Connect with Barry:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

• X: @gilbert3142

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #PortfolioManagement #InvestmentStrategies #JulyMarketRally #StockMarketTrends #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #MarketVolatility #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump and debate the Fed's current policy paralysis amid uncertainty about inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

Key Takeaways

• Middle East Tensions and Market Response:
  • The U.S. recently attacked suspected nuclear sites in Iran, and despite immediate fears, the S&P 500 rallied over 1%, and oil prices sharply reversed after an initial spike—down nearly 14% in one day, one of the largest reversals in history.

• Geopolitical Patterns and Historical Context:
  • The hosts point out historical examples, such as World War I and the Iraq War, where war-driven fiscal spending and deficit growth actually boosted stock markets significantly.

• Economic and Fiscal Implications of Conflict:
  • Wars often lead to increased defense and deficit spending, which, despite negative human impacts, can boost corporate profits and stock markets, as seen historically (e.g., Iraq War 2003).

• President Trump's Criticism of Jerome Powell and Fed Policy:
  • President Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, calling Powell a "numbskull" and suggesting lower rates would save trillions for the U.S.

• Fed's Policy Paralysis Amid Uncertainty:
  • The Fed faces conflicting economic signals: higher projected inflation (due partly to tariffs), rising unemployment, and slowing growth, resulting in policy paralysis. Sonu criticized Powell’s comments claiming labor market strength, pointing to rising unemployment claims and slowing payrolls as clear signs of labor market weakness.

• Odds of Fed Rate Cuts Increasing:
  • Market-implied probabilities show a significant rise in expectations for a rate cut by September 2025, largely driven by recent sharp declines in oil prices.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #MiddleEastTensions #StockMarketReaction #IranConflict #FiscalSpending #JeromePowell #FedPolicy #TrumpVsPowell #InterestRates #EconomicUncertainty #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by financial journalist and TKer founder and editor Sam Ro. Together, they cover Sam’s background, his curated newsletter approach, emerging data-quality issues at the BLS, and why human judgment still matters in the age of AI.

Key Takeaways

• What Sam Ro Actually Does All Day
  Sam is the founder and editor of TKer (pronounced ticker), a daily financial newsletter. He previously led markets coverage at Business Insider and was managing editor at Yahoo Finance. His role now is synthesizing market data and macro trends into clear, actionable insights for readers — many of whom are financial advisors.
• The Market Goes Up—Until It Doesn’t
  Sam chose the slogan “The stock market usually goes up” for his newsletter because, well, the market usually goes up. But, as Sam cautions, it’s important for investors to be prepared for downturns, or they can get badly dinged in the short term.
• Parsing the Data
  The group discusses a recent announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics about collecting less data than before, and how budget cuts and staffing issues at the bureau could lead to less accurate data collection in economic surveys like CPI and employment reports.
• More Than Just Statistics
  Sam, who majored in religion in college, discusses the notion that data only goes so far in predicting the markets. Models can’t predict everything, and sometimes you just need to embrace uncertainty and have a bit of faith that the markets will sort themselves out over time.
• AI Can’t Replace Human Judgment
  While AI chatbots now summarize reports faster—and sometimes more eloquently—than humans, Sam stresses that interpreting nuance and making editorial decisions remain human domains.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Sam:

· https://www.tker.co/

· X: @SamRo

· LinkedIn: sammyro

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #SamRo #TickerNewsletter #MarketFlows #StockMarket #InvestorDiscipline #FinancialMedia #Macroeconomics #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, unpack the political feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — and what it signals for markets, sentiment, and investor behavior.

But this episode covers more than just political drama: Ryan and Sonu break down what recent data says about inflation, the labor market, and Federal Reserve policy, while stressing the importance of not overreacting to headlines.

Key Takeaways

• Theater Meets Market Implications
  The Trump-Musk spat included insults, accusations, and the threat of government contract cancellations. Ryan and Sonu dig into how this narrative dominated headlines and its potential impact on investor sentiment.
• Markets Rally Despite the Drama
  Despite political noise, equity markets have remained resilient. The S&P 500 has posted strong returns since April lows, reflecting underlying market strength.
• Economic Data Is Mixed, Not Recessionary
  While headlines emphasize slowing job growth and sticky inflation, Ryan and Sonu stress that the broader picture doesn’t scream recession. Job openings remain high, unemployment is low, and wages continue to rise.
• Fed Remains Cautious
  While job growth is slowing and inflation still sticky, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates paused for the foreseeable future—though a drop in inflation could trigger a reexamination.
• Watch Market Breadth and Participation
  Rather than obsess over megacap tech stocks, the hosts urge listeners to track participation across sectors and in global markets. Broader market strength is a bullish sign that shouldn't be ignored.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #LaborMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate #FinancialPlanning #WageGrowth #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #StockMarket #MacroTrends

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market’s surface.

Key Takeaways

• Markets Continue to Surprise on the Upside
  After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.
• Tariff Drama Continues
  A court ruling struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that’s bolstered many investors.
• Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas
  Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.
• No Sign of a Recession
  With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.
• Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case
  Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven’t caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines.

Broadcasting from Carson's 2025 Spring Partner Summit in Omaha, this conversation blends covers everything from Tesla and Palantir to Microsoft's AI momentum and more.

Key Takeaways

• Tesla Is Not Just a Car Company: Dan emphasized that Tesla should be valued as a disruptive AI and robotics company, not merely an automaker. Autonomous robotics are seen as a core driver of its future valuation.
• AI Party Is Just Getting Started: We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution—around “10:30 p.m.” on an all-night timeline, according to Dan. He likens skeptics to party-poopers who will wish they had joined once the sun comes up.
• China Cannot Be Decoupled: Efforts to cut ties with China in tech manufacturing are unrealistic, says Dan. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese infrastructure, and disrupting this would have broad economic consequences.
• Apple as the AI Highway: While Apple may have lagged in AI innovation early on, Dan believes it will become the dominant platform for consumer AI applications thanks to its vast device ecosystem and installed base.
• Microsoft's Untapped AI Monetization: Despite a recent lull in stock performance, Dan sees Microsoft as massively underappreciated in its AI capabilities, especially within its enterprise customer base.
• Google (Alphabet) Is Underloved: Alphabet is currently the most underestimated of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, particularly due to overstated concerns about search being disrupted by AI.
• Palantir’s Long-Term Role: Dan projects Palantir as a trillion-dollar company in the making, thanks to its growing role in enterprise and sovereign AI applications.
• AI Stocks Beyond the Headlines: Emerging names like Pegasystems, SoundHound, Veronis, and CyberArk are cited as under-the-radar plays in the AI boom, especially in areas like cybersecurity and data infrastructure.
• Autonomous + Robotics = Game Changer: Dan envisions a near-future where humanoid robots under $20,000 become household norms—transforming labor, transportation, and daily life.
• Bitcoin’s Role in Tech: Bitcoin’s institutional adoption is growing, and Dan sees it as a risk-on asset with increasing relevance, especially in a deregulated environment.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Dan:

• LinkedIn: Daniel Ives

• X: @DivesTech

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #DanIves #AIRevolution #TeslaAI #MicrosoftAI #TechInvesting #AutonomousFuture #InnovationEconomy #NVIDIA #Palantir #CryptoAndTech #ChinaUSRelations #BigTech #FutureOfWork #CarsonPartners #FinancialPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.

Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.

Key Takeaways:

• PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation:
  CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.
• Macro Noise & Recession Probability:
  Macroeconomic forecasting in today’s environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.
• Economic Resilience Remains Strong:
  Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.
• Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth:
  Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.
• AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable:
  Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.
• Why Lower Oil Prices Haven’t Translated to Relief at the Pump
  Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven’t followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Skanda:

• X: @IrvingSwisher

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath