In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, provide a midyear market review and outlook for 2025. Reflecting on major surprises in the first half of the year, including unexpected tariff announcements and subsequent reversals, they analyze market performance in the first half of the year against historical trends. The discussion highlights market resilience, key economic indicators, historical market trends, and strategic insights into navigating the second half of 2025 effectively.

Key Takeaways

• Unexpected Tariff Volatility
  
  • The Liberation Day announcement by President Trump of extremely high tariffs surprised markets significantly. Equally surprising was how rapidly these tariffs were paused, causing abrupt swings in market sentiment.
• Investor Sentiment Shifts
  
  • Many investors who were initially bearish following the tariff announcements underestimated the market's capacity to rebound strongly, emphasizing the importance of managing emotional biases and market timing.
• Market Resilience and Momentum
  
  • Despite early setbacks, the markets showed resilience, demonstrating strong recovery patterns consistent with historical trends.
• Bull Still Charging
  
  • The average bull market lasts about five years, but the current one we’re in hasn’t lasted even three yet—something to keep in mind next time the market experiences a setback.
• Fed Stays on Pause
  
  • Market volatility kept the Fed on the sidelines in the first half of 2025, but we may see rate cuts by the fall if the markets stay on track.
• A Big Beautiful Boost
  
  • Though the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill will likely add to the deficit in the coming years, it could also provide a boon to the markets in the back half of the year.
• Strategic Insights for Second Half 2025
  
  • Historical market trends indicate a potentially strong performance for the latter half of 2025. Investors are advised to focus on long-term strategies and diversification, and remain cautious of headline-driven market reactions.

Want access to Carson Investment Research Team’s full Midyear Market Outlook? Head to https://www.carsongroup.com/market-outlook to download the full report.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #MidyearOutlook2025 #MarketVolatility #Tariffs #InvestorSentiment #EconomicTrends #MarketForecast #HistoricalPatterns #InvestmentStrategy #StockMarketInsights #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #MarketRecovery

In this week’s episode of the Facts Vs Feelings podcast, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Barry Gilbert, VP Asset Allocation Strategist at Carson Group, for an insightful conversation on effective portfolio management strategies. Barry shares valuable perspectives on the importance of teamwork, constructive debate, and making decisive investment decisions based on clear, actionable insights. Ryan and Sonu also discuss the historical strength of the July market, providing investors with context and strategic guidance for navigating the second half of the year.

Key Takeaways

• July Stock Market Trends and Analysis
  
  • July has historically been strong, with the S&P 500 rising 10 consecutive years in that month, and it’s notably the strongest month during post-election years.
• Impact of Positive May and June Performance
  
  • Historically, positive returns in both May and June forecast strong market performance for the rest of the year—typically gaining around 9-10% in the final six months.
• Effective Portfolio Management Insights
  
  • Barry Gilbert stresses the importance of constructive debate, critical thinking, and conviction-driven investment decisions in successful asset allocation strategies.
• Carson Group’s Investment Philosophy
  
  • Barry highlights Carson’s culture of managing real money through rigorous debate and collaborative decision-making.
• Investor Guidance and Market Volatility
  
  • Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective and managing emotional reactions during short-term market fluctuations.

Connect with Barry:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert

• X: @gilbert3142

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #PortfolioManagement #InvestmentStrategies #JulyMarketRally #StockMarketTrends #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #MarketVolatility #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese

In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss recent Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, the surprisingly minimal market reaction despite high geopolitical stakes, and insights into historical parallels and fiscal spending impacts on stock markets. They also cover recent criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump and debate the Fed's current policy paralysis amid uncertainty about inflation, unemployment, and economic growth.

Key Takeaways

• Middle East Tensions and Market Response:
  • The U.S. recently attacked suspected nuclear sites in Iran, and despite immediate fears, the S&P 500 rallied over 1%, and oil prices sharply reversed after an initial spike—down nearly 14% in one day, one of the largest reversals in history.

• Geopolitical Patterns and Historical Context:
  • The hosts point out historical examples, such as World War I and the Iraq War, where war-driven fiscal spending and deficit growth actually boosted stock markets significantly.

• Economic and Fiscal Implications of Conflict:
  • Wars often lead to increased defense and deficit spending, which, despite negative human impacts, can boost corporate profits and stock markets, as seen historically (e.g., Iraq War 2003).

• President Trump's Criticism of Jerome Powell and Fed Policy:
  • President Trump publicly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates, calling Powell a "numbskull" and suggesting lower rates would save trillions for the U.S.

• Fed's Policy Paralysis Amid Uncertainty:
  • The Fed faces conflicting economic signals: higher projected inflation (due partly to tariffs), rising unemployment, and slowing growth, resulting in policy paralysis. Sonu criticized Powell’s comments claiming labor market strength, pointing to rising unemployment claims and slowing payrolls as clear signs of labor market weakness.

• Odds of Fed Rate Cuts Increasing:
  • Market-implied probabilities show a significant rise in expectations for a rate cut by September 2025, largely driven by recent sharp declines in oil prices.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #MiddleEastTensions #StockMarketReaction #IranConflict #FiscalSpending #JeromePowell #FedPolicy #TrumpVsPowell #InterestRates #EconomicUncertainty #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese