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The SPY Trader

The SPY Trader

By: Manoj Sharma
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 Welcome to ’The SPY Trader,’ your essential audio resource for trading insights. Broadcasting every few hours, our podcast delivers timely summaries of critical news impacting the markets, expert analysis, and trading recommendations. Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting, tune in to stay ahead of market trends and refine your trading strategy with actionable insights. This podcast is AI-generated. Disclaimer: The information provided on ’The SPY Trader’ podcast is for educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and decisions should be based on your own due diligence and consultation with a professional financial advisor where appropriate. The creators of ’The SPY Trader’ assume no responsibility for any financial losses or gains you may incur as a result of information presented on this podcast. Listener discretion is advised.Copyright 2024 All rights reserved. Economics Personal Finance Politics & Government
Episodes
  • Market Pulse: Highs & Hurdles

    Market Pulse: Highs & Hurdles
    Jul 6 2025
    Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1289. Welcome back to Spy Trader, your daily dive into the market's heartbeat. I'm your host, Market Maverick Mike, and it's 6 am on Sunday, July 6th, 2025, Pacific time. We're looking at a fascinating week ahead for the US stock market, kicking off on Monday, July 7th. The market recently saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit fresh alltime highs, with the S&P 500 climbing an impressive 10.6% in the second quarter, finishing the first half of 2025 at a record high. This was largely fueled by a strongerthanexpected June jobs report. However, some analysts are calling the market 'overbought' in the short term, leading to a 'slightly bearish' outlook for the upcoming week, although a big pullback isn't widely expected. Historically, July tends to be a favorable month for bullish trends. Looking at the big picture, trade policy is a major focus. The critical date is July 9th, when the pause on higher US tariffs is set to expire. If new trade deals aren't finalized, we could see significantly higher levies on goods from economies without agreements. We've seen some movement, like the recent deal with Vietnam, which imposes a 20% US tariff on their imports while eliminating tariffs on American exports. But this ongoing trade uncertainty has already led to reduced global GDP growth projections for 2025 and 2026, and many companies are holding back until there's more clarity. On the inflation and interest rate front, US headline inflation is at 2.4%, with core inflation still a bit higher. The Federal Reserve has previously cut rates, but that strong June jobs report has dampened expectations for further immediate cuts, with traders now seeing a lower chance of a July cut. We'll be closely watching the FOMC meeting minutes, due midweek, for insights into policymakers' divided views on future rate adjustments. The labor market showed surprising strength in June, adding 147,000 jobs, which was more than economists expected, and the unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%. This suggests a robust job market that could support consumer spending. However, there are broader signs of strain, including slowing job growth overall, falling job openings, and layoffs in some sectors, particularly technology. And let's not forget the US national debt, which has now exceeded $37 trillion. Some economists warn this could temper the positive effects of recent fiscal policies. The economic calendar for July 7th to 11th is a bit lighter on major releases. On Tuesday, July 8th, we'll see Consumer Credit data. Wednesday, July 9th, brings EIA Crude Oil Inventories, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index, and Wholesale Inventories. Thursday, July 10th, features Continuing Claims and Initial Claims, along with EIA Natural Gas Inventories. And Friday, July 11th, rounds out the week with the Treasury Budget release. As mentioned, the FOMC meeting minutes will also be released midweek. From a sector perspective, Technology and Communication Services are projected to show strong earnings growth for the second quarter of 2025, with expectations of 17.7% for technology and 31.8% for communication services. Big Tech and AIrelated stocks are anticipated to continue outperforming. Healthcare and Leisure & Hospitality are currently driving most of the new job creation, while tech, retail, and government sectors are experiencing hiring slowdowns or declines. Notably, Delta Airlines previously withdrew its optimistic 2025 forecast due to global trade uncertainties. This week also features several AIfocused conferences, like the 'AI for Good Global Summit 2025' in Geneva and 'RAISE Summit 2025' in Paris. While these are industry events and not companyspecific announcements, they underscore the ongoing interest and developments in the AI space. So, what does all this mean for your portfolio? The market next week is likely to see moderate volatility with a slight bias towards caution, primarily because of that July 9th tariff deadline and the ongoing uncertainty around future Fed policy. While recent momentum has been bullish, the market's 'overbought' status and potential traderelated headlines could trigger pullbacks. The trade deadline is the most significant known event. If new deals aren't secured, higher tariffs could negatively impact corporate earnings and global growth, potentially creating selling pressure, especially in sectors heavily reliant on international trade. Fed policy is also a bit ambiguous. The strong jobs report has reduced immediate rate cut expectations, which might be a slight negative for equities that have benefited from the prospect of lower borrowing costs. The FOMC minutes will offer crucial insights, but if they reinforce a 'higher for longer' rate stance, it could temper bullish sentiment. On the flip side, the market did close at record highs, driven by positive sentiment and strong jobs data. This underlying bullishness and the fear of missing out could provide ...
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    9 mins
  • Record Highs: Jobs Fuel the Rally

    Record Highs: Jobs Fuel the Rally
    Jul 5 2025
    Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1288. Hello and welcome to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for navigating the ins and outs of the stock market. I'm your host, Penny Wise, and it's 6 am on Saturday, July 5th, 2025, Pacific time. We're here to give you the freshest take on what's driving the market as we head into the weekend. What a week it's been in the U.S. stock market! Major indices have been absolutely soaring, hitting new record highs, and there's a good dose of optimism floating around, primarily fueled by some positive economic data and a glimmer of hope on the trade front. However, as always, there are some underlying concerns and specific company stories that add a bit of spice to the mix. Let's dive into a quick summary of what happened. The major U.S. stock indexes posted solid gains during this shortened trading week, which wrapped up early on July 3rd for the Independence Day holiday. The S&P 500 was a real standout, rising 1.72% for the week and closing at a new record high of 6,227.42. It even continued its climb on July 4th, reaching 6,279 points. For May 2025, it clocked a fantastic 6.15% monthly return. The techheavy Nasdaq Composite also hit new record highs, gaining 1.62% for the week and closing at 20,393.13 on July 3rd. Not to be left out, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3% for the week, getting very close to its alltime high set back in December. Looking at the yeartodate performance for 2025, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up nearly 7%, while the Dow has climbed 5.4%. The second quarter of 2025 was particularly strong, with the S&P 500 surging nearly 11% and the Nasdaq soaring 18%. Now, let's talk sectors. Basic Materials led the charge, up 3.59%, closely followed by Financial Services, which rose 2.64%. On July 3rd, Technology, Energy, and Materials also saw nice advances. On the flip side, Utilities and Communication Services lagged a bit, and the Health Care sector even saw a decline on July 3rd. Moving on to the big news items and macroeconomic conditions, the highly anticipated June jobs report, released on July 3rd, showed strongerthanexpected job growth. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 147,000, surpassing predictions. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.1% in June from 4.2% in May, mainly because more unemployed folks found jobs. Job gains were mostly in state government and health care, while federal government employment continued to decline. While the headlines looked great, private sector hiring did slow down a bit. Average hourly earnings increased by a modest 0.2% in June, a significant slowdown from earlier in the year. When it comes to inflation, the annual rate for the U.S. was 2.4% for the 12 months ending May. We're all waiting for the next Consumer Price Index, or CPI, update for June, which is due on July 15th. The Federal Reserve has expressed concern that President Trump's tariffs could be bubbling up prices this summer. At its June meeting, the Fed kept its target federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. They did revise their 2025 Gross Domestic Product forecast downward and increased their yearend PCE inflation projection, again citing the anticipated impact of tariffs. But here's the interesting part: the median Fed official still expects two quarterpoint rate cuts before the end of 2025. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that growth remains solid, but uncertainty is high, and the Fed will remain patient. On July 1st, Powell couldn't confirm a July rate cut, saying the Fed would be carefully watching the labor market. Trade policy and tariffs also played a big role. Optimism around potential trade deals, specifically with Vietnam and an anticipated deal with India, gave market sentiment a boost. However, President Trump's looming July 9th tariff deadline is a major focus for investors, as these tariffs are expected to weigh on growth and push up prices. Plus, the ongoing discussions in Congress about President Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill', which includes provisions impacting renewable energy tax credits and the elimination of the 7,500 dollar EV credit, also caused some market ripples. Now, let's talk about some specific companies that made headlines. Datadog, ticker DDOG, saw its shares surge 15% on July 3rd after S&P Global announced its inclusion in the S&P 500 index on July 9th. Tesla, ticker TSLA, had a volatile week, falling more than 5% on July 1st due to a public dispute between Elon Musk and former President Trump over the budget bill and EV credits. However, Tesla also reported beating its secondquarter delivery estimates. Renewable energy stocks like First Solar and Enphase Energy saw significant gains on July 3rd, likely influenced by those discussions surrounding renewable energy tax credits and new taxes on imported renewables equipment within that pending 'Big Beautiful Bill'. Adobe, ticker ADBE, shares dropped 4.5% on July 3rd following rival Figma's IPO filing and...
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    11 mins
  • Market Milestones: Navigating Record Highs

    Market Milestones: Navigating Record Highs
    Jul 5 2025
    Fresh news and strategies for traders. SPY Trader episode #1287. Hey there, traders and investors! Welcome to Spy Trader, your goto podcast for understanding the pulse of the market. I'm your host, Money Mike, and it's 6 pm on Friday, July 4th, 2025, here on the Pacific Coast. We’ve got a lot to unpack from a truly eventful period in the markets, so let's dive right in. First up, our market recap. The U.S. stock market has been on an absolute tear, particularly in the second quarter of 2025. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have recently hit fresh record highs, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is hot on their heels, nearing its own alltime peak. For the week ending July 3rd, the Dow climbed 2.3 percent, the S&P 500 gained 1.7 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.6 percent. June was a fantastic month, with the Dow up 4 percent, the S&P 500 surging 5 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite leading the charge with a 6 percent gain. Looking at the second quarter, it was the best for U.S. stocks in over a year, with the S&P 500 jumping 10.6 percent and the Nasdaq Composite soaring 17.8 percent. Even the smallcap Russell 2000 advanced 8.3 percent. While the first half of 2025 was a bit more mixed overall, described as 'tepid' for the major indexes, the S&P 500 remarkably recovered from a near 20 percent decline earlier in the year to finish the half up 5.5 percent. This resilience is truly something to watch. In terms of sectors, Industrials led gains with a 15.4 percent surge in the first half, followed by Technology at 11.6 percent, and Utilities at 11.0 percent. The Information Technology sector specifically had a very strong June, returning 9.8 percent. On the flip side, Consumer Discretionary fell 2.3 percent and Energy declined 0.2 percent in the first half of 2025. The AI rally, which has been a major theme, is broadening out beyond just the megacap tech giants, now reaching into related areas like electrification, data storage, and infrastructure. Now, for the macroeconomic conditions that are shaping this landscape. A strongerthanexpected June jobs report really boosted confidence, with U.S. employers adding 147,000 jobs, beating expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1 percent. This has significantly reduced recession concerns, with the odds of a U.S. recession in 2025 falling from 65 percent in May to just 22 percent in July. However, this robust labor market has also dampened expectations for immediate interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The Fed is holding its key policy rate at 4.25 percent to 4.50 percent, stating they need more time to assess tariff impacts. That said, Fed officials still anticipate two rate cuts in 2025, likely resuming in the fall. Following the jobs report, the yield on the 10year Treasury note rose to 4.34 percent, and the twoyear Treasury yield jumped to 3.88 percent, reflecting expectations for rates to stay higher for longer. Trade policy is another big one. There’s optimism following an agreement with Vietnam to reduce tariffs, but uncertainty remains as a 90day tariff pause is set to expire on July 9th. This could mean higher levies on goods from countries without new trade deals. The recently approved 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' which includes fiscal stimulus through tax cuts and increased spending, further supports the Fed's cautious stance on rates, but tariffs also pose a risk of elevated inflation. Geopolitically, easing tensions in the Middle East have also added to the positive market outlook. On the company front, we've seen some big movers. Datadog, ticker DDOG, saw its shares surge between 14.9 and 15 percent after S&P Global announced its inclusion in the S&P 500 index effective July 9th. Solar and semiconductor firms had a good run too, with First Solar, FSLR, up 8.5 percent, and Enphase Energy, ENPH, gaining 3.9 percent. Similarly, semiconductor design software firms Cadence Design Systems, CDNS, and Synopsys, SNPS, rose after the U.S. government lifted restrictions on exporting certain software to China. Oracle, ORCL, shares jumped over 8 percent to new alltime highs on news of a reported 30 billion dollar data deal win and strong growth in its MultiCloud database revenue. Not all sectors were shining though. Centene, CNC, shares plummeted almost 40 percent after the company withdrew its fullyear guidance due to weak growth and higherthanexpected costs. This negative news impacted other healthcare insurers like UnitedHealth, UNH, and Elevance Health, ELV. Tesla, TSLA, had a volatile week, ending slightly down and showing an 8.3 percent decline in June, contributing to a 21 percent yeartodate drop. Investors are really waiting for updates on its robotaxi expansion during the upcoming secondquarter earnings call. So, what does all this mean for you, the savvy investor? The current state of the U.S. stock market is a fascinating mix of strong economic fundamentals and ongoing policy uncertainties. The primary ...
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    10 mins
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