The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through a real estate lens. Podcast By Dr. Adam Gower cover art

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through a real estate lens.

The Real Estate Market Watch - current events through a real estate lens.

By: Dr. Adam Gower
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 A shifting economic order. Rising geopolitical risk. Capital on edge. In The Real Estate Market Watch, Dr. Adam Gower, author, academic, and commercial real estate veteran with over 40 years of experience, examines the macroeconomic signals reshaping the real estate investment landscape. This isn’t a show about deal hype or trend-chasing. It’s about what happens when confidence meets correction - and how investors and sponsors can respond with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection. Each episode features candid conversations with economists, multi-cycle real estate professionals, and respected market thinkers. The aim: to make sense of fast-moving events without partisan noise or clickbait headlines - only the real implications for real estate. There’s no fixed release schedule. Episodes are published in response to market conditions, not calendars. If you're trying to navigate uncertainty with a clear-eyed, capital-first approach, this podcast is for you. Newsletter: GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000Unless otherwise indicated, all images, content, designs, and recordings © 2025 GowerCrowd. All rights reserved. Economics Personal Finance
Episodes
  • Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy

    Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy
    Jul 2 2025
    Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy: A Data-Centric View on U.S. Housing with Chris Nebenzahl Locked-In America: The Housing Market’s Great Stall The U.S. housing market isn’t just tight, it’s inert. As Chris Nebenzahl, Housing Economist at John Burns Research and Consulting, puts it, America is experiencing a “lock-in effect” where millions of homeowners, beneficiaries of sub-3% mortgages from a prior era, have no incentive to move. Transactions, both in the for-sale and rental segments, are stalling. Inventory is constrained by economic rationality, not lack of demand. “The housing market thrives on constant moves,” Nebenzahl says. “But right now, across the housing spectrum, people are locked in.” The result: record-low turnover in single-family and multifamily rentals, with occupancy propped up by immobility rather than expansion. In such a frozen ecosystem, prices remain surprisingly buoyant despite high rates – a divergence from textbook supply-demand dynamics. The 5.5% Mortgage Threshold: A Reopening Trigger? The most actionable insight from Nebenzahl’s research: housing won’t truly unfreeze until mortgage rates return to a “magic number” of approximately 5.5%. That’s the psychological and financial line at which the lock-in effect starts to meaningfully ease, based on historical demand models and borrower behavior. With mortgage rates stuck between 6.5% and 7.5%, this still feels a long way off. Until that number is achieved, or until housing prices decline significantly, mobility will remain stifled. Notably, certain regions such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Tennessee are already seeing modest price declines, indicating that some pressure is starting to break through. But Nebenzahl is clear: this isn’t a repeat of 2008. “Nationwide, I think we’ll see maybe a 1–2% decline in home values. We’re nowhere near GFC territory,” he says. The real estate crash of yesteryear was a systemic event; today’s stalling is more friction than fissure. Bifurcation in Geography and Performance The story of U.S. housing is increasingly one of regional divergence. “It’s a tale of two markets,” Nebenzahl observes. Northeast, Midwest, parts of the West Coast: Supply remains tight, pricing is stable or even rising, and rent growth is positive particularly in cities like Boston, Chicago, and San Francisco. Sunbelt metros like Austin, Dallas, Denver, Nashville: Facing ongoing rent declines and incentives as a wave of multifamily supply catches up with (and briefly outpaces) demand. What’s driving this? In one word: inventory. “Austin, for example, has seen the most supply as a percentage of existing stock. That’s softened rents, even though demand remains strong.” The Quiet Strength of Rentals Despite oversupply in some markets, multifamily is holding up. Rents have stabilized, absorption remains healthy, and rent-to-income ratios are generally favorable. Nationwide, that ratio sits around 25%, well below the 30% threshold for ‘rent burden.’ Even in supply-saturated markets like Austin, ratios hover near 20%, laying a foundation for recovery. Why this resilience? A few reasons: Affordability gap: With for-sale housing out of reach for many due to both price and interest rates, renting becomes the only viable option. Mobility hedge: In uncertain economic times, the flexibility of a 12-month lease is more appealing than a 30-year mortgage. Demographic tailwinds: New household formation, though potentially threatened by labor market softness, is still skewing towards rentals. “The lion’s share of household formation is going into rental,” Nebenzahl says. “Because of affordability challenges, and because people are hesitant to make long-term commitments.” Cracks in the Foundation: Where Distress May Surface Still, there are stress points, especially in assets underwritten in the froth of 2021. “I’d be watching older vintage assets in oversupplied markets,” he says. “Many of those were acquired with floating rate debt and pro formas that didn’t anticipate interest rates going from 0% to 5.5% overnight.” These deals are now colliding with debt maturities, declining rents, and underwriting models that assumed permanent appreciation. That said, he does not forecast widespread defaults – more likely, selective distress in marginal players. Risks on the Horizon: Immigration, Labor, and Fragility Beyond rates and rent rolls, Nebenzahl highlights three structural risks that CRE professionals should monitor closely: Immigration policy: Rental demand and construction labor both depend heavily on immigrant populations. Recent restrictions, including H1-B visa tightening and deportations, have had a measurable cooling effect. “Immigrants rent across the income spectrum,” he notes. “A slowdown hits both the demand side and the build (supply) side.” Aging trades ...
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    57 mins
  • Navigating Risk, Noise, and Uncertainty

    Navigating Risk, Noise, and Uncertainty
    Jun 25 2025
    Navigating Risk, Noise, and Uncertainty: Barry Ritholtz on Investing in a Volatile World In my conversation with Barry Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management and host of Bloomberg’s “Masters in Business” podcast, we explored market and real estate cycles, caution, and capital allocation in today’s increasingly unpredictable economic environment. Below are the most actionable and provocative takeaways for real estate investors, both passive and professional, drawn from Barry’s decades of lessons and market observations. Origins of Insight: From Blog to Bloomberg Ritholtz didn’t set out to run a multi-billion-dollar firm. What started as daily trading notes eventually evolved into a blog, a book, Bailout Nation, and a platform that positioned him to correctly call both the top and bottom of the 2008 financial crisis. This journey, grounded in curiosity and behavioral finance, shaped the contrarian and data-driven approach he still employs today. "I just wanted to know why some people made money while others didn’t doing the same thing." The 2008 Playbook: Behavioral Edge Over Economic Models Ritholtz attributes his early warning of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to non-traditional thinking and real estate roots (his mother was a real estate agent). Observing abnormal refinancing activity and "cash-out mania" led him to investigate securitized debt and derivative risk, well before it was mainstream. He reverse-engineered risk from Reinhart & Rogoff’s crisis research and famously predicted the Dow’s decline to ~6,800—earning mockery initially, then vindication. Echoes of 2008? Why This Time Feels Precarious While he stops short of predicting a crisis, Ritholtz allows for a 10–15% probability of a self-inflicted depression – a worst-case scenario rooted not in structural weakness, but political mismanagement. “It [is an] asymmetrical risk to take one bullet, put it in a six shooter, spin the wheel, and put it up against your head with a $28 trillion economy.” From tariffs to immigration policy to fiscal gamesmanship, Ritholtz sees signs that the U.S. may be eroding the long-standing trust that underpins reserve currency status and global capital flows. Cash Isn’t a Plan, Discipline Is When asked whether it makes sense to sit in cash and wait out the next downturn, Ritholtz counters with behavioral caution. Historically, those who “go to cash” rarely reenter at the right time and often miss the rebound entirely. “If you're going to sit out in cash, do you have the temperament, the discipline to get back in?” Instead, he recommends building resilience: modest leverage, long-term focus, and capital efficiency – hallmarks of legends like Sam Zell, who Ritholtz holds up as a model of disciplined real estate investing. A Word on Leverage: Use with Extreme Care High leverage is the common thread in stories of ruin. Ritholtz referenced the downfall of the Peloton CEO, who borrowed heavily against inflated stock. The same caution applies to over-leveraged real estate investors, especially those who haven’t endured a full cycle. “Market crashes are where capital returns to its rightful owners.” For CRE sponsors, now is the time to refinance where possible, preserve cash, and maintain flexibility, even if that means lower IRR projections. How to Filter the Noise: Create an Information Diet Ritholtz emphasized the need to tune out “financial candy from strangers” – the firehose of social media, Substacks, and hot takes by unvetted commentators. “They don’t know your zip code, your goals, your tax bracket. Why would you trust them?” He recommends identifying a shortlist of credible voices with defined, rational processes and a record of sound judgment. “Build your A-Team,” he advises. “Then ignore the rest.” Real Estate Today: Not Monolithic, but Multifaceted Unlike equities, real estate behaves very differently depending on location, asset class, and capital structure. While some sectors (e.g., Class B office) remain distressed, others (e.g., data centers, multifamily in select markets, industrial) are faring relatively well. “Literally, there are properties [Zell] held for half a century. He was long term… used modest amounts of leverage, and he bought great properties at even better prices.” Ritholtz warns against painting real estate with a broad brush and urges nuanced thinking about cycles, risk-adjusted return, and operator quality. Sentiment vs. Signals: What to Watch Now While he downplays the predictive power of investor sentiment, Ritholtz monitors: Three-month moving averages of non-farm payrolls Rounded tops in S&P earnings trends Residential real estate supply conditions in key metros Dollar strength (as a proxy for confidence and capital flows) “If the dollar keeps falling and supply starts rising in ...
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    1 hr and 20 mins
  • Bracing for the Real Estate Bang

    Bracing for the Real Estate Bang
    Jun 10 2025
    The Looming Crisis Few Want to Confront Paul Daneshrad, CEO of StarPoint Properties and author of Money and Morons, is sounding the alarm: the United States is barreling toward a sovereign debt reckoning – and real estate professionals are not nearly prepared. Citing economists Reinhart and Rogoff, along with voices as diverse as Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell, and Ray Dalio, Daneshrad warns that the U.S. has not only crossed the 100% debt-to-GDP threshold, widely viewed as a critical danger zone, but has kept accelerating. "We're at 120 to 140% on-balance-sheet," he notes. "If you include off-balance-sheet liabilities, we're at 300%." While the exact timing of the crisis is unknowable, Daneshrad argues that its inevitability is not. “It’s not a question of if – it’s when.” Politics, Populism, and Normalcy Bias Daneshrad is quick to dismiss the conventional partisan narrative. The deficit is no longer a left-right issue, it’s a bipartisan affliction. Both political parties, he argues, are fueling structural imbalances. Worse, the electorate, while voicing concern, refuses to vote for hard choices. This disconnect is the heart of his book’s provocative title: Money and Morons. “86% of Americans say they’re worried about the debt,” he says. “But they won’t vote for politicians willing to solve it, because that solution involves pain.” The result is what psychologists call “normalcy bias” – an instinct to ignore looming threats and retreat into the comfort of the familiar. Fixed-Rate Fortresses: Real Estate’s First Line of Defense If the debt crisis triggers hyperinflation and a spike in interest rates, as Daneshrad expects, the implications for real estate will be seismic. His response? Radical preparation. StarPoint has already begun shifting its portfolio into 20+ year fixed-rate debt and is moving toward 30-year structures. “It’s painful. It’s more expensive. But if the crisis comes in eight years, and you’ve got two years left on a 10-year loan, you’re vulnerable.” He emphasizes that this is not a fringe view. “Even Powell, whose mandate doesn’t include the deficit, felt compelled to warn the public. That’s how serious it is.” Deleveraging with Purpose Debt levels at StarPoint are also coming down – fast. The firm is targeting 40% leverage, down from a peak of 70%. They currently sit at 54%, and the journey continues. The rationale is clear: when interest rates jump from 6% to 15%, the re-pricing of real estate will be brutal. “That’s trillions in lost value,” says Daneshrad. “You have to de-risk now.” The Forgotten Asset: Cash Cash, often derided for its lack of yield in boom times, plays a central role in Daneshrad’s playbook. “The Rockefellers, Kennedys, Guggenheims – they had cash when it mattered. They bought at two cents on the dollar.” Berkshire Hathaway’s record cash holdings reinforce this strategy. “Buffett sees limited opportunity right now and high risk. That should tell you something.” Daneshrad recommends targeting cash reserves as a percentage of either AUM or annual free cash flow, steadily building them over time. "Public companies get punished for it. Private firms like ours have more flexibility and we’re using it." Why He’s Not Buying (Yet) Despite market dislocation, Daneshrad says StarPoint is mostly sitting on the sidelines. Cap rate spreads don’t justify the risk, and few deals offer the deep value he’s targeting. “We’re looking for rebound plays where sellers are on their third buyer and need certainty of close. That’s where the discounts are. But those opportunities are rare.” Asked whether the mispricing stems from short-term underwriting or optimism bias, he shrugs. “We’ve flooded the system with liquidity. Asset prices are artificially propped up.” Diversification and the Limits of Real Estate Daneshrad is not betting the farm on U.S. real estate. He’s pursuing modest geographic diversification abroad and expanding into non-real estate asset classes. “Historically, real estate hedges inflation well but a debt crisis changes everything.” He’s candid about the difficulty: “We’re not that smart. Timing a crisis is hard. But we can prepare for one.” The Aging America Conundrum One of the more nuanced points Daneshrad raises is the intersection of demography and fiscal sustainability. Aging, he agrees, is inevitable. But the care infrastructure it requires is not financially supported. “The trustees for Social Security and Medicare, not politicians, say the funds go bankrupt in under ten years. That’s $90 trillion in off-balance-sheet liabilities.” Senior housing? “A great idea if the elderly can pay. But with savings rates at historic lows, I’m not optimistic.” Market Signals That Matter Daneshrad watches for three early signs of crisis: A ...
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    45 mins
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Good insights to terms for investors. Found out about south and tax free states. I’ll listen again!
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