The OPEX Effect

By: Excess Returns
  • Summary

  • The OPEX Effect is a joint podcast from Excess Returns and SpotGamma where we take a deep dive into the world of options and the flows they generate in markets. Join Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand every month on Options Expiration week as they look at the major developments in the options world and how they impact all of our portfolios.
    Excess Returns
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Episodes
  • An Unprecedented Lack of Liquidity: What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
    Apr 19 2025

    In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack and Brent dive deep into the market turmoil following "Liberation Day" and the implementation of new tariffs. With volatility spiking to levels not seen since the 2020 COVID crash, the hosts analyze how options markets are reacting, why liquidity has evaporated, and what investors should expect in this new higher-volatility regime. The conversation covers everything from VIX behavior to options positioning, and provides critical insights for navigating these turbulent markets.

    Key Topics Covered:

    The recent market volatility spike and why this represents a fundamental "regime change"

    How options market makers are reacting to the tariff announcements and subsequent 90-day pause

    Why liquidity has disappeared from markets and its impact on price movements

    The significance of this month's options expiration and VIX expiration

    Why zero-DTE options are NOT the cause of recent volatilityTechnical support and resistance levels based on options positioning

    Gold's recent surge and signs it may be ready for consolidation

    The impact of increased correlation across asset classesExpectations for upcoming earnings season and its importance in this environment

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    1 hr
  • One of the Fastest Corrections in History: What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
    Mar 15 2025

    In the latest episode of the OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba take a look behind the scenes of the big market selloff and the options flows driving it. They break down the massive options expiration coming up (the second-largest ever) and its potential impact on market movements.Key topics covered:Understanding the current high-volatility environment and why options volumes are driving increased market swingsAnalysis of the JPMorgan collar trade at the crucial 5565 level and its market implicationsDeep dive into the mysterious "Captain Condor" trader and their impact on market dynamicsDiscussion of multiple major events ahead: VIX expiration, FOMC meeting, quarterly OPEX, and potential tariff deadlineExamination of fixed-strike volatility and why traditional VIX readings might be misleading in the current environment

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    1 hr and 6 mins
  • Danger in Market Calm? What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
    Feb 19 2025

    In this episode, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba analyze the current state of the options market heading into the February 2024 options expiration. They explore several critical themes, including:Why volatility remains surprisingly low despite significant market-moving eventsThe unusual dynamic where large single-stock moves (like NVIDIA's historic drop) aren't translating into broader market volatilityThe concerning signs in correlation metrics that echo patterns from past market stress periodsThe critical role of NVIDIA's upcoming earnings as a potential catalystWhy the current environment shows signs of stretched positioning that could lead to future volatilityThe shifting dynamics in Tesla options and the broader implications for market sentimentBrent shares his unique insights on why we're seeing an environment where traders are responding to market drops by selling calls rather than buying puts, and what this means for market stability. He also breaks down why the upcoming NVIDIA earnings report on February 26th could be a pivotal event for market direction.Whether you're an options trader or just interested in understanding market dynamics, this discussion provides valuable insights into the forces currently shaping market behavior.

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    1 hr and 12 mins
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