The episode begins with Kapoor explaining the origins of AI Snake Oil, tracing it back to his PhD research at Princeton on AI's limited predictive capabilities in social science domains. He shares how he and co-author Arvind Narayanan uncovered major methodological flaws in civil war prediction models, which later extended to other fields misapplying machine learning.

The conversation then turns to the disconnect between academic findings and media narratives. Kapoor critiques the hype cycle around AI, emphasizing how its real-world adoption is slower, more fragmented, and often augmentative rather than fully automating human labor. He cites the enduring demand for radiologists as a case in point.

Kapoor introduces the concept of “AI as normal technology,” which rejects both the notion of imminent superintelligence and the dismissal of AI as a passing fad. He argues that, like other general-purpose technologies (electricity, the internet), AI will gradually reshape industries, mediated by social, economic, and organizational factors—not just technical capabilities.

The episode also examines the speculative worldviews put forth by documents like AI 2027, which warn of AGI-induced catastrophe. Kapoor outlines two key disagreements: current AI systems are not technically on track to achieve general intelligence, and even capable systems require human and institutional choices to wield real-world power.

On policy, Kapoor emphasizes the importance of investing in AI complements—such as education, workforce training, and regulatory frameworks—to enable meaningful and equitable AI integration. He advocates for resilience-focused policies, including cybersecurity preparedness, unemployment protection, and broader access to AI tools.

The episode concludes with a discussion on recalibrating expectations. Kapoor urges policymakers to move beyond benchmark scores and collaborate with domain experts to measure AI’s real impact. In a rapid-fire segment, he names the myth of AI predicting the future as the most misleading and humorously imagines a superintelligent AI fixing global cybersecurity first if it ever emerged.

Episode Contributors

Sayash Kapoor is a computer science Ph.D. candidate at Princeton University's Center for Information Technology Policy. His research focuses on the societal impact of AI. He previously worked on AI in the industry and academia at Facebook, Columbia University, and EPFL Switzerland. He is a recipient of a best paper award at ACM FAccT and an impact recognition award at ACM CSCW.

Nidhi Singh is a senior research analyst and program manager at Carnegie India. Her current research interests include data governance, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies. Her work focuses on the implications of information technology law and policy from a Global Majority and Asian perspective.

Suggested Readings

AI as Normal Technology by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor.

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

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The episode opens with an in-depth discussion about the value of open source as a model of development and how the definitional contours of open-source AI differ from those of traditional open-source software. The discussion also explores the characteristics and challenges that distinguish open-source AI models from conventional software development approaches.

The discussion goes on to address recent strategic shifts in the AI industry towards more open development, sparked by developments like DeepSeek's open-source R1 model and leaked internal assessments suggesting that open-source communities may be outpacing tech giants.

The discussion also explores the complex trade-offs between open and closed AI development. While open-source models offer transparency, democratization, and innovation benefits, they also present cybersecurity vulnerabilities and potential national security risks. Nadh addresses concerns about jailbreaking vulnerabilities in open models, using DeepSeek's recent security lapses as an example, while also examining the limitations and risks of closed proprietary systems.

Nadh also provides his perspective on India-specific considerations, including the government's IndiaAI Mission and the decision to develop a homegrown large language model, and discuss the strategic implications of India's approach, which is not expected to be open-source at first, and the potential for India to make meaningful progress in driving open-source AI development as a matter of policy.

Episode Contributors

Kailash Nadh is the chief technology officer of Zerodha, India’s leading stock brokerage platform, where he has led its technology and product stack development since 2013. He is also the co-founder and director of FOSS United, a non-profit foundation based in Bangalore, that aims to provide grassroot support to free and open-source software projects and communities in India. In addition to being a full-stack software developer with more than two decades of technical experience, Nath holds a PhD in artificial intelligence and computational linguistics. His most recent writings also provide a compelling analysis of open-source software developments and AI breakthroughs, including in the Indian context.

Shruti Mittal is a research analyst at Carnegie India. Her current research interests include artificial intelligence, semiconductors, compute, and data governance. She is also interested in studying the potential socio-economic value that open development and diffusion of technologies can create in the Global South.

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.

In this conversation, Aadil Brar and Saheb Singh Chadha examine how China's strategic behavior across the India-China border, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea reflects a broader effort to create regional influence and redefine border security under Xi Jinping. Aadil explains how Beijing frames these actions as issues of national sovereignty, using military presence and political rhetoric to entrench its claims.

They explore the “chain reaction” thesis, which suggests that China prepares for simultaneous tensions on multiple fronts in anticipation of external responses—especially in the event of a Taiwan contingency. This perspective, Aadil argues, helps explain China’s sustained activity along the LAC.

The discussion also delves into China’s efforts to normalize military exercises around Taiwan, making it harder to distinguish military exercises from wartime operations. While these tactics project strength, they may also be prompting diplomatic recalibration as China confronts the strategic consequences of its assertiveness.

Episode Contributors

Aadil Brar is a TV reporter for TaiwanPlus News based in Taipei. Prior to this, he was the China News Reporter for Newsweek and wrote columns for The Print India. His experience includes working with the BBC World Service and National Geographic, covering topics such as international affairs, geopolitics, environmental conservation, and border conflicts. In 2016, he received the National Geographic Young Explorer Grant.

Saheb Singh Chadha is a senior research analyst in the Security Studies Program at Carnegie India. His research focuses on China’s foreign and security policies, India-China relations, and India’s military modernization. He is broadly interested in the geopolitics of South Asia and the Indo-Pacific.

Additional Readings

Views From Taipei: Essays by Young Indian Scholars on China by Vijay Gokhale, Suyash Desai, Amit Kumar, and Aadil Brar

Every two weeks, Interpreting India brings you diverse voices from India and around the world to explore the critical questions shaping the nation's future. We delve into how technology, the economy, and foreign policy intertwine to influence India's relationship with the global stage.

As a Carnegie India production, hosted by Carnegie scholars, Interpreting India, a Carnegie India production, provides insightful perspectives and cutting-edge by tackling the defining questions that chart India's course through the next decade.

Stay tuned for thought-provoking discussions, expert insights, and a deeper understanding of India's place in the world.

Don't forget to subscribe, share, and leave a review to join the conversation and be part of Interpreting India's journey.