When we started Excess Returns, we wanted to come up with one way to boil down the best advice from the experts we have interviewed into one simple question. That led us to create a standard closing question that we ask all of our guests, “Based on your experience in the markets, if you could teach one lesson to your average investor, what would that be?”.

Over the history of the podcast, we have asked that question to close to 200 guests ranging from great investors to academic experts to options and macro traders. In this episode, we share the answers from our 50 most popular guests all in one episode. Featured guests include Liz Ann Sonders, Cliff Asness, Guy Spier, Michael Mauboussin, Mike Green, Cem Karsan, Chris Davis, Aswath Damodaran, Jack Schwager, Rick Ferri and many others.

Topics Covered:The fundamental purpose of investing: preserving and growing wealth rather than getting rich quick

The importance of base rates in investment decisions

Portfolio monitoring frequency and its impact on investment psychology

Viewing stocks as ownership in actual businesses rather than trading vehicles

The value of patience, humility, and self-forgiveness in the investment process

Diversification across asset classes, strategies, and time frames

The benefits of simplicity in investment approaches

The psychological challenges of investing and how to overcome them

Compounding as a fundamental wealth-building tool

The danger of performance chasing and overconfidence

The value of a rules-based investment process

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, who shares his extraordinary journey from Goldman Sachs trader to working directly with Bernie Madoff and ultimately becoming a victim of history's largest Ponzi scheme. Now a respected finance professor, Cohen offers unique insights into Wall Street's trading culture, the shock of Madoff's fraud, and how he rebuilt his life in academia after losing almost everything.

Topics Covered:

Andrew's early career at Goldman Sachs and how basketball gambling on the trading floor taught him market-making skills

The trading operations and technology at Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities in the early 1990s

Working dynamics with Bernie Madoff's sons, Mark and Andy, and office politics

How Andrew was invited to invest in Madoff's "exclusive" fund

Andrew's decision to leave Wall Street at the height of his success

The devastating moment Andrew learned about Madoff's arrest and the Ponzi scheme

The additional ordeal of facing clawback lawsuits after losing his investment

Transitioning to academia and finding a more fulfilling career path

Lessons for investors and finance students about risk, technology, and communication

Join hosts Matt Zeigler and Justin Carbonneau as they sit down with Richard Bernstein, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors. In this insightful conversation, Rich shares his expert perspective on today's market challenges, including the unprecedented narrowness of recent markets, the impact of tariffs on the US economy, and why the current environment calls for a shift toward value investing and greater diversification. Drawing on decades of experience, Bernstein offers practical wisdom for navigating today's uncertain investment landscape.

Topics Covered:

The difference between the 2008 financial crisis and today's economic challengesWhy 2023-2024 saw the most narrow stock market since the Great DepressionThe potential impact of tariffs as "the biggest tax on consumers in our professional careers"Why investors should err on the side of value over growth in the current marketHow US debt levels impact interest rates and economic competitivenessThe role of the Federal Reserve as a lagging rather than leading indicatorWhy gold serves as an effective hedge against uncertaintyBernstein's skeptical view on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin valuationThe limitations of index funds in today's market environmentTimeless advice for wealth building: stick to fundamentals and avoid "get rich quick" thinking

In this episode of Excess Returns, we are joined by Jim Paulsen of Paulsen Perspectives. We unpack the complexities of tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and investor psychology amidst a turbulent market environment. Jim brings his decades of experience to provide context, rational analysis, and long-term perspectives, steering clear of bold predictions and focusing instead on practical advice for navigating these uncertain times.

Main Topics Covered:

Jim’s perspective on market corrections and advice for investors during volatile periods, emphasizing emotional discipline and long-term thinking.The economic implications of tariffs, debunking the notion that they’re inflationary and exploring their contractionary effects.Critique of Federal Reserve policy, including their unprecedented actions and failure to ease despite market signals of deflation risk.Analysis of the U.S. dollar’s value and its impact on trade competitiveness, proposing a weaker dollar as an alternative to tariffs.The resilience of the private sector, bolstered by strong balance sheets and liquidity, as a buffer against recession fears.Thoughts on government debt, executive overreach, and Trump administration policies like deregulation and immigration.Investment strategies for the current environment.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler is joined by special co-host Bogumil Baranowski to sit down with Chris Mayer. As the author of the acclaimed book 100 Baggers: Stocks That Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them, former editor of influential newsletters, and co-founder of Woodlock House Family Capital, Chris brings a wealth of experience and a unique perspective to the table. In this conversation, we dive deep into the world of long-term investing, exploring timeless principles, the impact of AI on future opportunities, and the mindset required to identify and hold onto extraordinary businesses. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this episode is packed with wisdom to help you navigate the markets with patience and purpose.

Main Topics Covered:

The potential for 100-bagger stocks in emerging industries like AI and how time reveals the winners.

The "twin engines" of growth and multiples, and why great businesses often trade at high valuations.

The merits and challenges of concentrated investing in a market dominated by giants like the "Mag Seven."

Strategies for dealing with drawdowns and maintaining conviction in great companies through volatility.

The importance of aligning investment strategies with the right type of capital, especially for family wealth.

How experiences as a banker, newsletter editor, and board member shape a business-owner mindset.

The role of boards in capital allocation and setting incentives that drive long-term value.

Insights from general semantics as a tool for critical thinking and avoiding investment pitfalls.

The power of journaling to track evolving thoughts and foster humility in investing.

Why patience is the ultimate lesson for investors and how to tune out market noise.

In this episode, we are joined by Rick Ferri, a renowned advocate for low-cost, evidence-based investing. With the market in the midst of a significant selloff, it was a great time to get Rick’s practical wisdom on navigating market volatility, maintaining simplicity in investing, and making informed portfolio decisions amidst economic uncertainty. With his disciplined approach and decades of experience, Rick shares actionable advice for investors looking to stay the course through today’s challenges. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this discussion offers valuable perspectives to help you achieve long-term financial success.

Main Topics Covered:

Strategies for handling market uncertainty and avoiding rash decisions during volatile times.

The benefits of simplicity in investing and why the industry pushes complexity.

Debunking the myth of the "dead" 60/40 portfolio and tailoring asset allocation to individual needs.

Practical tips for sticking to your asset allocation through market ups and downs.

How inflation impacts portfolios and why personal inflation rates matter.

The case for international diversification and its long-term benefits.

Thoughts on economic policies like tariffs and their potential effects on markets.

Direct indexing: who it’s for, who it’s not for, and how it’s often oversold.

Why active management struggles to outperform, despite persistent marketing efforts.

Evaluating alternative investments like private credit and their risks.

Addressing the "age in bonds" rule of thumb and its relevance for different investors.

Questions to ask financial advisors to ensure you’re getting value for your fees.

Rick’s evolution as an investor and the four stages to simplicity.

An overview of the Core Four portfolio and its alignment with economic realities.

Approaches to rebalancing and when to let asset allocations glide.

Rick’s unique view on separating advisor fees for advice and asset management.

In this episode, we dive into the current economic landscape and its implications for investors with Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. Andy shares his expert analysis on the U.S. economy’s trajectory, the impact of policy shifts under the new administration, and the tools investors should consider—or avoid—in today’s volatile markets. From navigating the “slowdown sea” to unpacking the effects of tariffs and national debt, this conversation offers a deep dive into the forces shaping financial conditions and what it all means for your portfolio. Don’t miss Andy’s unique perspectives, including his contrarian take on quantitative easing!

Main Topics Covered:

Andy’s “Island Framework” and the current economic slowdown, including his shift from “Higher for Longer Island” to the “Slowdown Sea” en route to “Recession Island.”

The alignment of Trump, Powell, and Bessant’s goals to slow growth and curb inflation, and why this favors bonds over stocks.

The role and relevance of the “Trump Put” and “Powell Put” in today’s market, and why they’re farther out of the money than many expect.

The economic impact of proposed policies like tariffs, immigration restrictions, and expenditure cuts, including the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiative.

The national debt debate: its mechanics, risks, and why Andy sees it as a burden on future generations.

Long-term inflation drivers, including demographics, productivity, and deglobalization’s inflationary pressures.

The Federal Reserve’s current position, its balance sheet challenges, and its flexibility to respond to economic shifts.The mechanics and pitfalls of leveraged ETFs, and why they’re a poor choice for long-term investors.

Andy’s contrarian view on quantitative easing as inherently pro-growth and inflationary, despite the 2008-2018 experience.

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cullen Roche, a renowned financial expert from Discipline Funds, as he breaks down some of the most pressing economic and market topics impacting investors today. Hosted by Justin and Jack, this episode of Excess Returns dives into a "fact and fiction" style discussion, where Cullen unpacks complex issues like Federal Reserve policies, tariffs, and the national debt with clarity and nuance. With his knack for simplifying the mechanics of markets and the economy, Cullen offers a fresh perspective on what’s really happening—and what it means for your financial future. Check out more about Cullen’s work at disciplinefunds.com.

Main Topics Covered:

• The Fed and Soft Landing: Cullen evaluates whether the Federal Reserve has successfully managed inflation and engineered a soft landing, reframing the analogy as stabilizing an economy in flight rather than landing it.
• Tariffs and Inflation: A deep dive into Trump’s tariff policies, exploring their impact as a corporate tax, their potential to drive inflation, and whether they can bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
• National Debt Concerns: Cullen shares his take on the U.S. national debt, downplaying immediate risks while acknowledging the long-term inflationary dangers of unchecked government spending creep.
• DOGE and Deficit Reduction: Thoughts on the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), its potential to cut waste, and the challenges of moving the needle given the dominance of entitlements and defense spending.
• AI’s Economic Impact: How artificial intelligence might boost productivity, its limits in transforming retail demand, and whether it offsets tariff-related economic pressures.
• Bond vs. Stock Market Smarts: Cullen debunks the myth that the bond market is inherently smarter than the stock market, emphasizing both are efficient in their own right.
• Mortgage Rates and Housing: A look at whether we’ll see ultra-low mortgage rates (like 3%) again, driven by secular trends in technology and population growth.
• Crypto Reserve Fund: Cullen critiques the idea of a U.S. crypto reserve, arguing it diverts resources from productive economic investments.
• Leg Day Economics: A lighthearted yet serious take on why leg day matters—not just for fitness, but for longevity and stability.