
The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"
Incerto, Book 2
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Narrated by:
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Joe Ochman
About this listen
The Black Swan is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible”.
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility”, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book - itself a black swan.
Includes a bonus pdf of tables and figures.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
“The most prophetic voice of all.” (GQ)
Praise for The Black Swan:
“[A book] that altered modern thinking.” (The Times, London)
“A masterpiece.” (Chris Anderson, Editor-in-chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail)
“Hugely enjoyable - compelling...easy to dip into.” (Financial Times)
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
©2010 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (P)2018 Random House AudioListeners also enjoyed...
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Critic reviews
“Engaging.... The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” (The New York Times Book Review)
“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne.... We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.” (The Wall Street Journal)
“The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” (Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate)
“Idiosyncratically brilliant.” (Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times)
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Story
A "gray rhino" is a highly probable high-impact yet neglected threat - kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance.
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The voice is not for an audiobook
- By El Fadil on 10-13-17
By: Michele Wucker
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Thinking, Fast and Slow
- By: Daniel Kahneman
- Narrated by: Patrick Egan
- Length: 20 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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The guru to the gurus at last shares his knowledge with the rest of us. Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman's seminal studies in behavioral psychology, behavioral economics, and happiness studies have influenced numerous other authors, including Steven Pinker and Malcolm Gladwell. In Thinking, Fast and Slow, Kahneman at last offers his own, first book for the general public. It is a lucid and enlightening summary of his life's work. It will change the way you think about thinking. Two systems drive the way we think and make choices, Kahneman explains....
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Difficult Listen, but Probably a Great Read
- By Mike Kircher on 01-12-12
By: Daniel Kahneman
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A Man for All Markets
- From Las Vegas to Wall Street, How I Beat the Dealer and the Market
- By: Edward O. Thorp, Nassim Nicholas Taleb - foreword
- Narrated by: Edward O. Thorp
- Length: 16 hrs and 30 mins
- Unabridged
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The incredible true story of the card-counting mathematics professor who taught the world how to beat the dealer and, as the first of the great quantitative investors, ushered in a revolution on Wall Street.
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A life of a genius
- By Oleksiy Volovik on 05-08-17
By: Edward O. Thorp, and others
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Against the Gods
- The Remarkable Story of Risk
- By: Peter L. Bernstein
- Narrated by: Mike Fraser
- Length: 14 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
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In this unique exploration of the role of risk in our society, Peter Bernstein argues that the notion of bringing risk under control is one of the central ideas that distinguishes modern times from the distant past. Against the Gods chronicles the remarkable intellectual adventure that liberated humanity from oracles and soothsayers by means of the powerful tools of risk management that are available to us today.
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Glad it finally got here
- By bda31175 on 10-16-21
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Nudge: The Final Edition
- Improving Decisions About Money, Health, and the Environment
- By: Richard H. Thaler, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 11 hrs and 33 mins
- Unabridged
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Since the original publication of Nudge more than a decade ago, the title has entered the vocabulary of businesspeople, policy makers, engaged citizens, and consumers everywhere. The book has given rise to more than 200 "nudge units" in governments around the world and countless groups of behavioral scientists in every part of the economy. It has taught us how to use thoughtful "choice architecture" - a concept the authors invented - to help us make better decisions for ourselves, our families, and our society.
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Doesn’t include a Pdf of the images the book calls out
- By John O'Connell on 08-03-21
By: Richard H. Thaler, and others
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When Genius Failed
- The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management
- By: Roger Lowenstein
- Narrated by: Roger Lowenstein
- Length: 9 hrs and 12 mins
- Abridged
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Roger Lowenstein, the bestselling author of Buffett, captures Long-Term's roller-coaster ride in gripping detail. Drawing on confidential internal memos and interviews with dozens of key players, Lowenstein crafts a story that reads like a first-rate thriller from beginning to end. He explains not just how the fund made and lost its money, but what it was about the personalities of Long-Term's partners, the arrogance of their mathematical certainties, and the late-nineties culture of Wall Street that made it all possible.
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When Genius Failed
- By Sean on 12-17-08
By: Roger Lowenstein
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Chaos Kings
- How Wall Street Traders Make Billions in the New Age of Crisis
- By: Scott Patterson
- Narrated by: Eric Yang
- Length: 9 hrs and 13 mins
- Unabridged
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There’s no doubt that our world has gotten more extreme. Pandemics, climate change, superpower rivalries, cyberattacks, political radicalization—virtually, everywhere we look there is mayhem bearing down on us, putting trillions of assets at risk. And at least two factions have formed around how to respond. In Chaos Kings, Scott Patterson depicts how one faction, led by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, bestselling author of The Black Swan, believes humans can never see the big disaster coming.
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So so misleading
- By Pm on 06-12-23
By: Scott Patterson
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Statistics Simplified—For People Who Prefer Stories over Numbers
- Learn to Make Better Decisions. Become an Informed Consumer. Debunk Popular Misbeliefs (Advanced Thinking Skills, Book 6)
- By: Albert Rutherford, Abby Gordon
- Narrated by: Russell Newton
- Length: 2 hrs and 26 mins
- Unabridged
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Become a better decision-maker and more informed consumer using statistics stories. Stories stimulate our brains to enhance retention and understanding by evoking emotions. They provide context, helping us grasp complex concepts through real-life examples and establish a connection with the information. By transforming data into narratives, we recall and thus apply insights more effectively, enhancing our ability to make more informed decisions. Perfect for the Math-Averse. You don’t need to crunch numbers to make statistics valuable.
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Fun and accessible
- By R. Silva on 01-09-25
By: Albert Rutherford, and others
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Blockchain Revolution
- How the Technology Behind Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies Is Changing the World
- By: Alex Tapscott, Don Tapscott
- Narrated by: Jeff Cummings
- Length: 16 hrs and 38 mins
- Unabridged
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In this revelatory book, Don and Alex Tapscott bring us a brilliantly researched, highly understandable, and essential book about the technology driving the future of the economy.
By: Alex Tapscott, and others
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Misbehaving
- The Making of Behavioral Economics
- By: Richard H. Thaler
- Narrated by: L. J. Ganser
- Length: 13 hrs and 35 mins
- Unabridged
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Richard H. Thaler has spent his career studying the radical notion that the central agents in the economy are humans - predictable, error-prone individuals. Misbehaving is his arresting, frequently hilarious account of the struggle to bring an academic discipline back down to earth - and change the way we think about economics, ourselves, and our world.
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Great book if it's your first about Behav. Econ
- By Jay Friedman on 09-30-15
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Superforecasting
- The Art and Science of Prediction
- By: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
- Narrated by: Joel Richards
- Length: 9 hrs and 45 mins
- Unabridged
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Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.
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Great for Experts
- By Michael on 02-20-17
By: Philip Tetlock, and others
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Fortune's Formula
- The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street
- By: William Poundstone
- Narrated by: Jeremy Arthur
- Length: 10 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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In 1956 two Bell Labs scientists discovered the scientific formula for getting rich. One was mathematician Claude Shannon, neurotic father of our digital age, whose genius is ranked with Einstein's. The other was John L. Kelly Jr., a Texas-born gun-toting physicist. Together they applied the science of information theory - the basis of computers and the Internet - to the problem of making as much money as possible as fast as possible.
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Could be MUCH shorter
- By Michael on 11-08-17
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The Art of Thinking Clearly
- By: Rolf Dobelli
- Narrated by: Eric Conger
- Length: 7 hrs and 49 mins
- Unabridged
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A novelist, thinker, and entrepreneur, Rolf Dobelli deftly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don't need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic hyperactivity - all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this indispensable audiobook will change the way you think and transform your decision making - at work, at home, every day.
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Major Downer
- By Daniel Ales on 01-22-20
By: Rolf Dobelli
What listeners say about The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"
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- Jared M. Short
- 04-10-19
so cool!
I'm not a technical consumer but it was a fascinating read. I think I understood 50%.
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18 people found this helpful
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- B. Kost
- 07-27-21
Words can't even describe how good this book is
If you read Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman and then read this book afterward and you understand all the material presented and use it, you will then be smarter than most people. I was lucky enough to have read them in that order. Kahneman and Talib are buddies and colleagues too.
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- Jillian
- 02-04-20
Insightful opinions on statistics
I found Taleb's careful and comprehensive explanation about why we should be continually wary of statistics excellent. Recommended read to make sure you have awareness of "extremeistan' and why it is relevant in statistics.
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- ujjwal kumar
- 08-24-19
Beware this will break all your previous theories
I never imagined the world in this way, I am a bit uncomfortable but enlightened by thoughts and ideas presented, small humour is also greatly appreciated. though I feel the same idea has been repeated multiple times, the book can be a bit shorter.
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- OC
- 04-22-20
Necessary
Despite disliking the sprawled out, redundant, sometimes difficult to follow and often pompous writing style, I got through this and the Antifragile book because of the very important message that is under appreciated anywhere else. A must-read for understanding rare events and protecting against them - not “if” but “when” they occur. Never more relevant than with the recent COVID pandemic and the under-preparedness of everyone from CDC, WHO, hospitals and government - all people who knew but somehow didn’t believe it would happen.
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- Matt Wong
- 06-12-19
A book about unpredictable event is somewhat predictable
The entire book can probably be summed up as “you know nothing, Jon Snow”. The book is probably more philosophical than practical. I enjoyed the counterintuitive thinking but it was a little repetitive.
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- Madz
- 03-12-23
I enjoyed the story
I found this book better to be listened to rather being read. Half the time I 'm lost at all the math talks but NNT seems to make you get back on track on the main idea of the subject often with a funny anecdote. Definitely one of the best book and ideas out there.
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- Relentless
- 12-23-23
Amor Fatti
Very few authors have the ability to ruthlessly change the way you see the world and human condition like Dr. Taleb. This was the second of his books that I have read; each time feel a shroud of misconceptions is lifted from me. Absolutely a must read.
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- Nathan Fales
- 12-04-21
Great book and performance
Taleb makes a convincing case for the impact of black swans in every day life.
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- NSnapp
- 12-30-21
Great practical work
This book changed my approach to how I think. Actually it encouraged me to think vs use short cuts of conventional wisdom which often isn’t wisdom at all. I agree with Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”! The book has support through an extensive bibliography. If you are interested in making better decisions, learning how to not be blindsided, this is the book for you in my opinion.
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